November 7, 2016 at 1:48 pm #20370
Just for fun
Teams by 8 board grading average:
York 194, Shef A 185, Leeds CCCC 177, Bradford A/Hull/Huddersfield 174, Calderdale 171, Sheffield B 169, Forgrove/Harrogate 165, York C 160, Alwoodley 150
(York’s big average here is slightly more than I’d expect us to maintain for normal matches.).
Average team overall:
194, 186, 180, 174, 170, 161, 158, 150 (172)
Take out the outliers – the top two and Alwoodley – and its:
191, 184, 178, 173, 170, 161, 156, 150 (170)
The likely promotion candidates are playing off ~170 for Central and +-165 for York B.
As for the league, well, it’d take a brave person to bet against one of York or Sheffield now I think. Leeds/Bradford not consistent enough to cope with how solid the mid table teams are now & 1.5 match points is an awful lot to try and make up, especially with their still having to play each other.
Sheffield are still quite decently placed if they can beat York in Feb, with slight game point worries. Mostly caused by the 8-0 walkover vs Sheffield B, so no complaints there
Relegation? Goodness knows. The target to be safe from relegation is >6 pts, but 6 is often enough I think.
The current table is obviously a bit misleading as the field is quite lopsided in some ways. For a relegation threatened team to get points off Sheffield or York A would be a real shock (happens of course – see Sheffield D :)), and equally the gap is such that any points vs Leeds, Bradford, Huddersfield or Hull, while far from impossible, probably have to be viewed as bonuses.
So you’re almost looking at a 5 match season, making the target 6 points rather scary! Especially since bundling Calderdale in here is a bit daft
Forgrove have played 3/5 matches of that + got a bonus 2 points vs Bradford and I suspect are safe already.
York C have played 3/5 of these matches and their 3 points isn’t that secure. Their best chance is maybe a win vs Harrogate in Feb and scraping a draw elsewhere.
Harrogate have played 1/5 (and that Calderdale), so should probably get enough from other matches to be OK.
Calderdale have played 2/5 and not Sheffield or York A yet, so Dave has reasons for modest worries. Only modest, and I’d expect them to survive quite happily.
Alwoodley have played 2/5 and it looks tough from here, but 2/3 in those would get them to 5 which might do it.
Sheffield B have played only 1/5 & Sheff/York A too, so given their team strength they can realistically aim at all of their remaining 7 matches, and you’d expect them to reach at least 6 match points.
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